Chris Ladd, a moderate conservative who blogs for the Houston Chronicle, has mounted a compelling argument that the seemingly smashing victory of the Republicans in the midterm elections is merely the prelude to a “spectacular, catastrophic failure” in 2016.
“It became apparent from the numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at the White House in 2016,” Ladd concludes, “and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer than two years is precisely zero.”
Ladd argues that Republican support grew deeper, but not broader, in the 2014 midterms as the party swept the traditional red states but made no inroads in blue states, which now include New Hampshire and Virginia.
In his initial post-election analysis, Ladd was not firmly decided about Virginia, but concluded in a subsequent blog that if Republicans could not oust a Democratic incumbent like Mark Warner even in a midterm year with everything going for them, then the state belongs behind the Blue Wall.
This means that these firmly blue states, the Blue Wall that Ladd is describing, account for 270 electoral votes — the number needed to be elected president. Firmly red states, by contrast, add up to only 149.
In short, a Republican candidate can win only by capturing all nine swing states and flipping a dyed-in-the-wool blue state, which Ladd considers virtually impossible.
Continue reading: The Democrats have a lock on the White House – MarketWatch.