Clinton will not be responding to the latest email brouhaha. Instead, she’ll kick back and watch Trump continue to lose this election.
Imagine that the darkest possible interpretation of Hillary Clinton’s latest email “scandal” is true: The former secretary of State offered privileged access to her agency in exchange for donations to her favorite charity. Would that change any rational voter’s preference in this year’s election?
No doubt, this would be a genuine scandal. Even if you support all of the Clinton Foundation’s charitable efforts, the organization still pays out salaries to the family’s friends. We don’t want public officials exploiting the power of their positions to elbow out competitors in the “selling indulgences to plutocrats” game.
But who, precisely, would look at such a scandal and think, “I was going to vote for Clinton, but now I will cast my ballot for the transparently corrupt, imbecilic racist instead?” Which is to say, even if a voter’s No. 1 issue is reducing government corruption, proof positive that Clinton sold access to the State Department wouldn’t give him or her a good reason to vote for Donald Trump.
More: Clinton Just Gonna Run Out the Clock on This Email Thing
It relies in part on how panelists say they voted in 2012, but people tend not to report their past votes very accurately.
There’s an interesting new entry in political polling: the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll. It’s different from other surveys because it’s a panel, which means it recontacts the same voters over and over. In 2012, a similar panel study done by RAND was considered a big success.
But so far, the U.S.C./LAT panel has consistently been far out of step with other surveys. Donald Trump has led in nearly every survey it has conducted in the last few months, by as much as seven percentage points. Even today, Hillary Clinton has only a one-point lead — even as she claims a comfortable lead nationwide. It was enough for the Drudge Report to feature the poll result prominently.
One factor that could be contributing to the panel’s tilt toward Mr. Trump is its decision to weight its sample according to how people say they voted in 2012.
The pollsters ask respondents whether they voted for President Obama or Mitt Romney. They then weight the sample so that Obama voters represent 27 percent of the panel and Romney voters represent 25 percent, reflecting the split of 51 percent to 47 percent between the two among actual voters in 2012. (The rest include newly eligible voters and those who stayed home.)
More: A Favorable Poll for Donald Trump Seems to Have a Problem
Donald Trump tries to explain his way out of his comment about “2nd Amendment people” stopping Hillary Clinton from appointing judges.
Source: Trump shoots off his mouth – The Washington Post
What would a Trump presidency look like? A 100-day POLITICO investigation.
What also emerges from this 100-day review is a Trump outlook less tethered to the traditional left-right ideological spectrum and more to his binary view of winners and losers, the weak and the strong. He praises foreign strongmen like Saddam Hussein and Vladimir Putin, and casts as weak his political opponents. It’s one of the reasons Trump seems never to back down, no matter the cost to himself, dragging out controversies around a judge’s ethnic heritage (Days 32-36), the use of a Jewish star atop a pile of money (Days 61-65), and his feud with the Muslim-American family of a fallen U.S. soldier (Days 87-92).
Those three episodes alone consumed 15 percent of his days.
But as much news as Trump made, much of Trump’s 100 days is a tale of time squandered: the three weeks before holding his first fundraiser, the 39 days before a swing-state tour, the 50 days before his first email solicitation for money. “Usually campaigns don’t even start until September,” said Paul Manafort, his campaign chairman, on Day 94. Trump has still not aired a general election ad.
Indeed, perhaps the most difficult missteps to measure are Trump’s neglected opportunities. He essentially ignored an inspector general’s report critical of Clinton (Day 23), stomped on the Labor Department’s worst jobs report in six years (Day 32) and posted that controversial Jewish star the same day Clinton sat down to be interviewed by the FBI (Day 61).
By far, though, the hardest part of tracking Donald Trump is simply keeping up.
More: 2016 election: 100 days of Donald Trump – POLITICO
There are a number of Republicans so horrified by Donald Trump that they’re supporting Clinton, the GOP’s longtime nemesis. According to Politico, more GOP defectors are set to go public this week, and the Clinton campaign will soon roll out an official Republicans for Clinton organization to mobilize them. Crucial to this mini-movement are Republican women. In this election, much has been said about the surge of blue-collar men towards Donald Trump. At least as significant, however, has been the rush of white-collar women away from him. According to a new Monmouth University poll, college-educated white women prefer Clinton to Trump by 30 percentage points, 57 percent to 27 percent.
Source: Why some Republican women are voting for Hillary Clinton.
In just the first quarter, more than 252,000 U.S. residents applied to become naturalized citizens, a 28 percent increase from the same period a year earlier, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
Besides the 41 percent increase in Florida, gains were registered in swing states: about 6,000 applications in Pennsylvania, 3,000 in Nevada, 4,000 in North Carolina and 3,000 in Colorado. There are 8.8 million permanent residents living in the U.S. eligible for citizenship, of whom 2.7 million are from Mexico, according to government estimates.
Latinos, who make up most immigrants in Florida, have shifted to majority Democrat, according to the Pew Research Center, meaning that the new Americans could provide a boost to Clinton.
Trump has antagonized immigrants from the outset of his campaign by calling undocumented Mexicans rapists, proposing a ban on Muslims entering the country and pledging mass deportations.
Without Florida’s 29 electoral-college votes — the winner needs 270 — Trump has little chance of beating Clinton, says Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. The rise in naturalization requests could make that more difficult.
More: New U.S. Citizens Could Help Swing Vote Against Trump – Bloomberg Politics